MUMBAI: Reliance Industries Ltd is likely to post a fourth straight rise in quarterly profit, helped by higher gas output from its field off India's east coast and improvements in refining margins.
The company's near-term business outlook will depend on increases in gas production, the outlook for refining margins and investment plans for its newly-found interests in shale gas and telecoms businesses, analysts said. "The market is eagerly anticipating what will be the next big thing by Reliance — will it be an acquisition? Will it be another new business?" said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, strategist and head of research SMC Global Securities, said.
Reliance is pumping about 55-60 million cubic metres of gas a day from KG D6, off India's east coast, and the country's oil secretary said in July the company would be able to pump gas at full capacity during the year to March 2013.
The company, controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani who is the world's fourth richest man according to Forbes magazine, has struck three shale gas joint ventures with US firms so far this year. Ambani has made no secret of Reliance's overseas ambitions, and is looking to invest in areas such as shale gas to widen its businesses beyond petrochemicals, refining, oil and natural gas exploration, and retail.
The company has made a dramatic return to the telecom business with the $1 billion acquisition of Infotel Broadband, the only company to win a nationwide licence for broadband wireless spectrum in a government auction.
Analysts said gross refining margins at Reliance's flagship refining business should show signs of sustained recovery at $8 per barrel for the September quarter, up from $7.3 per barrel in April-June.
ONGC State-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp is expected to report a 15 percent rise in quarterly net profit on higher oil prices and also boosted by a gas price increase. ONGC is required to partially subsidise the sale of fuel to state-run retailers, who sell fuel at state-controlled, below-market prices.
The government this year deregulated gasoline prices and has said diesel prices will eventually be freed. For the September quarter, ONGC's subsidy burden was 30.19 billion rupees, an official said earlier this month, compared with about 55.16 billion rupees in June quarter and 26.3 billion rupees in the year-ago quarter.
The Indian government allowed ONGC to charge higher prices for the gas produced from June and this will be the first full quarter of higher gas prices. ONGC expects the higher gas price to add 15-16 billion rupees to quarterly revenue.
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